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What the 2026 midterms mean for AI data centers

Voters went against data centers in 40 of 41 local measures on 3 November 2026. The power to act on that sits mostly with states, towns and utility commissions, not Congress.

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The 2026 midterms put AI data centers on the ballot as never before, and where voters were asked directly they said no: 40 of 41 local measures went against data centers, by Ballotpedia's count as CNBC reported it on 4 November 2026. What changes is decided mostly in states and towns, which set permits, tax breaks and power rates. In Washington, the projected Democratic Congress can investigate and use the budget, not pass a law over the president's veto.

In short

  • Local measures went against data centers almost everywhere, and governors who pledged pauses were projected winners in Texas, Georgia and Ohio.
  • The levers that matter sit in the states: executive orders, tax breaks, and utility commissions that decide who pays for the grid.
  • Congress can investigate and fund, but a veto override needs 67 senators and 290 House members, more than Democrats won.

What happened on 3 November that touches data centers?

Data centers were tested in four kinds of midterm contest. The results are decision-desk projections as of late morning ET on 5 November 2026, not certified.

Contest Result Data-center stance Source
Local ballot measures 40 of 41, in 10 states, against Bans, moratoriums Ballotpedia, via CNBC
Texas governor Gina Hinojosa (D) 52.8%, Greg Abbott (R) 45.7% Moratorium NBC, Fox
Georgia governor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 54.3%, Rick Jackson (R) 45.7% Pause by order NBC, Fox
Ohio governor Amy Acton (D) 52.3%, Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44.4% "Conditional moratorium" NBC, Fox
Kansas governor Uncalled: Cindy Holscher (D) 50.32%, Ty Masterson (R) 49.68% Holscher: pause Fox, 98.52% counted
Georgia utility commission Democrats won both seats, for a 3–2 majority Opposed a data-center grid expansion Unofficial count, via Wikipedia
US Senate Democrats 54, Republicans 44, Alaska and Mississippi uncalled Mixed NBC, Fox
US House Democrats 243 of 435 called, 38 uncalled Mixed NBC, 11:41 AM ET

Ohio had 21 of the 41, and the exception was Harwood, North Dakota, CNBC reported. Redbud Consulting, cited by CBS News, counted 38 restrictive measures approved. On the Georgia commission, Wikipedia's unofficial results show Peter Hubbard (D) holding his seat with 56.38% and Shelia Edwards (D) flipping a Republican one with 55.31%.

In the NBC News Exit Poll, 56% called AI and data centers a crucial or major factor, 76% opposed a new data center in their community, and 86% were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of utilities.

Why did data centers become an election issue?

Because they arrived where people pay the bills. The fight was over electricity first, then water, land and tax breaks.

Pressure point Figure Date
Data centers' share of US electricity 4.4% (176 TWh) 2023
Projected share 6.7% to 12% (325 to 580 TWh) 2028
US residential electricity price 18.16 cents/kWh, up 3.4% on a year August 2026
Residential price, year to date 18.19 cents/kWh, up 6.8% January to August 2026
Virginia's electricity used by data centers About 26% 2023
States with sales-tax breaks for data centers About 36 to nearly 40 2026
Virginia's sales-tax exemption cost $1.6 billion forgone Year to June 2025

The shares are from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report of December 2024, which the note on data centers explains. The prices are the EIA's preliminary figures of 23 October 2026. Virginia's share is the Electric Power Research Institute's, via Pew; Virginia also has the most data centers, 643 sites, planned ones included, to Texas's 395, per Data Center Map in October 2025. The AP counts nearly 40 states with tax breaks; Good Jobs First implies 36, and The Register reported Virginia's cost from its financial report.

The clearest link to bills is in PJM, the grid operator for 13 states from Illinois to New Jersey. Its capacity auction pays power plants years ahead to be available at peak, and much of that cost reaches bills. PJM says its forecast load rose "largely due to additional Large Loads", such as data centers, and its last three auctions cleared at the price cap.

Delivery year Price ($/MW-day) Cleared MW × price Note
2024/25 $28.92 $2.2 billion Before the jump
2025/26 $269.92 $14.7 billion Over nine times higher
2026/27 $329.17 $16.1 billion At the cap
2027/28 $333.44 $16.4 billion At the cap
2028/29 $325.00 $16.4 billion At the cap, 6,831 MW short of target

The figures are from PJM's auction report of 14 July 2026, which notes that the $16.4 billion is not the total cost to customers, since some load is hedged.

What can governors, legislatures and utility commissions now change?

Almost everything that decides where a data center goes. A governor can pause approvals by order, a legislature writes tax breaks and siting rules, and a utility commission decides who pays for new lines and plants.

Texas

Hinojosa said on 23 July 2026: "I'm calling for a moratorium until a legislative session that puts Texans first." She would end subsidies and make companies prove households won't pay more for power or water. Abbott had already "suspended data center approvals", CBS News reported. The Texas Legislature's next regular session opens on 12 January 2027 and runs 140 days; only the governor can call a special one.

Georgia and Ohio

Bottoms told CBS she would "sign an executive order for that pause" and review tax incentives. Georgia's new commission majority will set Georgia Power's rates; Edwards said data centers "must pay the full cost of the infrastructure needed to serve them," Ballotpedia reported. In Ohio, Acton's "conditional moratorium" would have data centers cover 100% of their utility costs, per CNBC. Ohio's regulator had already acted, with a large-load tariff: in July 2025 it approved AEP Ohio rules making new data centers over 25 MW pay for at least 85% of the capacity they reserve, for up to 12 years, POWER magazine reported.

What can Congress and the president do, and not do?

Congress can make noise and use money; it can't make data-center law alone. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber, 67 senators and 290 House members, and Democrats have 54 and, by NBC's estimate of 5 November 2026, about 259.

Who Can Can't
Congress, projected Democratic from 3 January 2027 Hold hearings, subpoena, write spending bills; the Senate confirms FERC nominees Pass a law over a veto alone
The president Veto bills, issue executive orders, direct agencies Spend money Congress hasn't appropriated
FERC, the federal grid regulator Set rules for connecting large loads to the interstate grid Set household retail rates, which states regulate
States and towns Moratoriums, zoning, tax breaks, large-load tariffs Override federal law or FERC's interstate rules

Executive Order 14365 of 11 December 2025 calls for a federal law overriding state AI laws but sparing those on "AI compute and data center infrastructure, other than generally applicable permitting reforms." On the president's powers, Donald Trump told Politico, AP reported: "I don't want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything."

What does it mean for the build-out?

Building gets slower and dearer where voters said no, not stopped nationwide. These scenarios are analysis, not forecasts.

  • Building moves to friendlier states. Trigger: pauses in Texas, Georgia or Ohio take effect. Texas accounts for 25% to 30% of the data-center capacity expected online by 2030, Dan Ives estimates, per CBS.
  • More power built on site. Trigger: grid connections slow or get pricier. Developers add their own gas plants, batteries or nuclear power.
  • Data centers pay for grid upgrades. Trigger: commissions copy Ohio's tariff. Projects go ahead at higher cost.
  • Delays. Trigger: lawsuits, recalls and tax-break reviews. OpenAI's planned 8 GW PORTS-Pike campus in Ohio, due online from 2028, is the one to watch.

The industry is already answering. In January 2026 OpenAI pledged: "we commit to paying our own way on energy, so that our operations don't increase your electricity prices," Bisnow reported. Amazon and Meta each promised $1 billion for host communities, and the tech giants have promised, in the AP's words, to "pay the cost of the power infrastructure" for their data centers. Power producers' shares, such as Vistra's, fell on 4 November, as the stocks note shows, and Anthropic's filing lists "restrictions on data center development" among its risks, covered in the Anthropic IPO note.

Still argued

Do data centers raise household bills? Consumer advocates and some studies say yes: an estimate attributes $9.3 billion of the 2025/26 PJM capacity price increase to data centers, and a Carnegie Mellon study estimated data centers and crypto mining could raise the average US bill 8% by 2030, both as reported by Pew. Utilities and the industry say growth spreads fixed grid costs: a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study found states with the most load growth in 2019–2024 saw real prices fall, the American Public Power Association reported, though not significantly for residential prices alone. The evidence is strongest inside PJM; nationally, grid repairs, weather and gas prices also move bills.

What should you watch, and when?

The next ten weeks set the pace.

  • 9 December 2026: PJM's 2029/2030 capacity auction, on PJM's schedule as of September 2026.
  • 11 December 2026: federal funding runs out; the lame-duck Congress faces a stopgap or a shutdown.
  • 3 January 2027: the 120th Congress convenes, with its projected Democratic majorities.
  • 12 January 2027: the Texas Legislature opens; new governors take office in January.
  • No date yet: FERC's rules for large loads. In June 2026 it found, preliminarily, that grid operators' tariffs "appear to be unjust and unreasonable"; no final rule had been reported as of 5 November 2026.

Check yourself

  • Why can a governor or utility commission change more for a data center than Congress can?
  • What is a capacity auction, and how do its prices reach household bills?
  • What does a large-load tariff make a data center pay for, and why?

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